q: Construct the stage-by-stage conditional-dispersion / covariance decomposition for the MSL descent and state whether the ellipse reduction equals the sum of an isolated guided-entry effect plus an isolated range-trigger effect, or departs from that sum by a sign/ordering-overturning margin that would falsify the additive log-linear form.

facet: mechanism

raised_by: ackoff

priority: high

query_terms: MSL entry descent landing reconstructed error budget downrange crossrange

query_terms: guided entry range trigger footprint reduction decomposition

query_terms: Mars EDL additive versus interaction effect apportionment

status: open


q: Does the assembled nine-to-eleven-vehicle design matrix contain any mission flying guided entry without the range trigger (or the reverse), and if not, on what evidence outside the candidate's own regression are three separable technology coefficients justified over collapsing GuidedEntry and RangeTrigger to one coupled MSL-bundle subsystem term?

facet: identification

query_terms: Mars Science Laboratory range trigger guided entry co-occurrence

query_terms: Way 2011 range trigger footprint reduction magnitude

query_terms: Mendeck MSL entry guidance per-stage dispersion


q: From the Mars 2020 Lander Vision System flight-performance and Safe-Target-Selection reconstructions, can the divert-enabled reachable-site gain be expressed as an ellipse-area reduction at all, or does the realized capability live in a site-reachability metric the area-based dependent variable cannot represent, so the curve attributes to TRN a number that misstates what TRN bought the mission?

facet: measurement

priority: normal

query_terms: Mars 2020 Lander Vision System reachable site divert authority

query_terms: terrain relative navigation site reachability metric versus ellipse area

query_terms: Safe Target Selection reachable region Mars 2020


q: Is there a constructible NTRS/PDS measure of the reachable-and-safe site set per mission (count or fraction of candidate sites cleared by the EDL system) that tests whether the attributed levers act through ellipse area at all, or whether area is a node-level proxy that severs the site-difficulty-against-achievable-precision interaction the prospectus itself says is what makes the capability matter?

query_terms: Mars landing site safety hazard cleared candidate set per mission

query_terms: MRO CTX onboard reference map hazard clearance Jezero

query_terms: reachable and safe site fraction EDL capability


q: Do the Karlgaard-family per-phase reconstructions (hypersonic / parachute / powered error budgets) show GuidedEntry, RangeTrigger and TRN act additively in log-area rather than multiplicatively or with cross-phase coupling, and if the reconstructed budgets show interaction, on what basis can summed gamma coefficients carry the mechanistic meaning the candidate attaches to them?

query_terms: MSL MEDLI2 per-phase aeroheating error budget coupling

query_terms: Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System trajectory reconstruction coupled sequence

query_terms: additivity test EDL lever log area interaction


q: Is there a documented MSR or human-Mars trade-study record showing landing-accuracy requirements are set jointly with mass, hazard-avoidance and surface-mobility budgets, such that a per-lever ellipse-reduction rate read off the curve can be checked against whether shrinking the ellipse is even the binding constraint on the containing architecture rather than asserted as a stand-alone investment input?

facet: governance

query_terms: Mars Sample Return architecture sensitivity landing accuracy binding constraint

query_terms: human Mars EDL trade study mass hazard mobility landing accuracy

query_terms: TechPort HEOMR precision landing requirement trade


q: Replace each binary first-flew dummy with a continuous capability-stock proxy (cumulative JPL reconstruction/EDL-simulation reports, guidance-algorithm version lineage, count of relevant-environment flight tests) and re-estimate: does the ellipse contraction load on the binary inserted dummy or on the continuous capability stock already rising before and between insertions?

query_terms: JPL EDL reconstruction report lineage cumulative count

query_terms: guidance algorithm version lineage Mars entry

query_terms: capability stock proxy learning curve technology dummy


q: Encode landing-site job-difficulty (site hazard density, terrain ruggedness, science-demanded targeting tolerance) as a covariate from the site-selection record and re-test: does the technology block stay jointly significant once demanded targeting difficulty is controlled, or is TRN partly a proxy for the mission choosing to be hired for a harder targeting job?

query_terms: Mars landing site hazard density terrain ruggedness targeting tolerance

query_terms: Jezero crater site selection science targeting difficulty

query_terms: jobs to be done demanded targeting difficulty covariate


q: TRN is set to one for exactly one mission (Mars 2020), so its coefficient is identified by n=1 and is collinear with every one-off feature of that mission (heavier divert authority, denser onboard reference map, more capable flight computer). State the external observation, Monte Carlo ablation isolating LVS map-match vs divert vs computer, or a second TRN-flown mission, that separates TRN collapsed the position-knowledge error from Mars 2020 differs in some other one-off way.

facet: rival

query_terms: Mars 2020 Lander Vision System Monte Carlo ablation map match divert

query_terms: second terrain relative navigation flown mission landing accuracy

query_terms: TRN position knowledge error isolation Mars 2020


q: Is the fitted technology gamma in-class for the future job? The historical job is science-target tolerance; MSR-retrieval and Human-Mars are fixed-point/hazard-bounded jobs. Compute, from the PDS achieved-miss-distance series and the Mars 2020 Safe Target Selection reconstruction, whether the lever that shrinks a science-tolerance ellipse has the same proportional effect on a fixed-point-rendezvous error, and name the observable revealing the coefficient is hired for a non-recurring job.

query_terms: fixed point rendezvous landing error versus science ellipse Mars

query_terms: Mars 2020 Safe Target Selection achieved miss distance

query_terms: cross job class elasticity precision landing lever


q: Using TechPort program-of-record records and the Karlgaard NTRS reconstruction lineage, produce a measurable institutional-continuity proxy (sustained EDL engineering headcount, mission cadence, or calendar gap between successive insertions) and show whether the per-generation proportional contraction is invariant to that proxy or co-moves with it; co-movement would mark the learning curve a closed value-network artifact, not a portable technology price.

query_terms: TechPort EDL technology development program of record

query_terms: JPL EDL engineering headcount mission cadence continuity

query_terms: institutional continuity proxy learning curve value network


q: State the explicit scope condition or provenance band attached to each gamma that stops an MSR-retrieval or Human-Mars planner from lifting it out of its historical job-and-value-network. The prospectus installs out-of-sample honesty for CALENDAR TIME (the InSight transient-vs-secular test) but no coefficient annotation, job-class boundary, or value-network-continuity precondition on the JOB-CLASS dimension; supply the missing job-class governance guardrail.

query_terms: scope condition coefficient annotation job class extrapolation

query_terms: precision landing requirement transfer science ellipse to fixed point

query_terms: out of sample honesty job class boundary EDL learning rate

status: partial


q: Run the blind reconstruction: hand forecasters the eleven ellipse values stripped of mission names, dates, and technology labels and ask them to recover the step ordering and breakpoint locations; report inter-rater agreement (Kendall's W on recovered ordering, kappa on breakpoint placement) against the assigned ordering. Does the structure survive label-blinding, or only appear once labels are revealed (the WYSIATI/hindsight failure mode)?

raised_by: kahneman

query_terms: blind label-stripped reconstruction breakpoint inter-rater agreement

query_terms: Kendall W Kappa breakpoint coding learning curve

query_terms: hindsight bias step ordering small sample time series


q: State the base rate before privileging InSight's above-trend residual: across the NTRS reconstruction record, what is the empirical residual distribution of a single Mars EDL ellipse around a fitted log-linear trend, how large is a purely chance residual given simulation-convention noise and Monte-Carlo dispersion, and does InSight's residual exceed that documented noise band?

facet: empirics

query_terms: Mars EDL landing ellipse reconstruction uncertainty residual distribution

query_terms: Monte Carlo dispersion noise band single mission ellipse

query_terms: InSight ellipse reconstruction uncertainty band


q: Quantify the garden of forking paths: enumerate the defensible pre-fit specifications (within-program netting of Viking/MER singly vs doubly, with-and-without-Viking, MSL guided-entry-plus-range-trigger apportioned three ways, log vs linear, achieved-miss DV, cumulative-landings axis) and report across the full grid how often the technology block stays jointly significant and correctly signed. What fraction of the defensible specification grid supports H1?

query_terms: multiverse specification grid robustness small sample regression

query_terms: garden of forking paths technology block joint significance

query_terms: specification curve learning curve nine observations


q: Code the three technology indicators from pre-flight TechPort and as-designed manifests dated strictly before each landing, blind to the realized ellipse, and show the macro-vs-incremental assignment is identical to the post-outcome coding; if any value shifts under blinding, the technology block is partly an artifact of outcome knowledge. The pre-flight TechPort design-ellipse predictions and as-designed manifests were absent from every queried corpus.

query_terms: pre-flight TechPort Mars EDL technology manifest as-designed

query_terms: design ellipse prediction before landing Mars mission

query_terms: blind pre-outcome covariate coding technology generation


q: Hand the eleven ellipse values, stripped of which technology flew when, to the independent physical error-budget decomposition (per-mission downrange/crossrange, parachute-deploy, position-knowledge magnitudes in the Karlgaard-family and MEDLI2 documents) and show whether the magnitude ORDERING of the three error sources falls out of the independent physics in the same rank pre-registered from the economic narrative. The per-mission physics error-budget magnitudes were not retrievable.

query_terms: per-mission downrange crossrange parachute deploy position knowledge error magnitude

query_terms: MEDLI2 Karlgaard error budget ordering Mars EDL

query_terms: independent physics error source ordering precision landing


q: From the published reconstruction uncertainty bands on the InSight ellipse and on the modern fitted trend, compute the probability that InSight's residual sign reverses within those bands, and state at what reversal probability the above-trend / on-trend decision rule should refuse to discriminate; if the residual sign is near a coin flip on the published uncertainty, the linchpin is a salience artifact. The InSight and modern-trend uncertainty bands were not retrievable.

query_terms: InSight landing ellipse reconstruction uncertainty band sign reversal

query_terms: modern Mars EDL trend residual reversal probability

query_terms: single observation decision rule refusal threshold residual sign


q: State the explicit cross-mission deflator that makes a 1976 Viking three-sigma ellipse area commensurable with a 2020 Mars 2020 ellipse area, harmonizing the probability content / tail mass of Viking-era vs modern three-sigma under non-Gaussian dispersions and the 1970s-limited-trial vs MEDLI-informed Monte Carlo simulation generation, then prove two independent analysts re-derive each ln-area within an order of magnitude. No Viking-era reconstruction document stating its dispersion convention was recovered.

raised_by: kuznets

query_terms: Viking 1976 Mars landing dispersion ellipse three sigma convention

query_terms: non-Gaussian tail mass percentile harmonization deflator landing ellipse

query_terms: Viking entry reconstruction dispersion convention primary record


q: Partition the total observed cross-mission contraction into (i) convention/simulation-fidelity drift in the ellipse-construction method and (ii) residual real contraction, and show H1 survives when (i) is differenced OUT of the raw ln-area series rather than absorbed into beta_1 or the gamma block; confirm whether the PDS achieved-miss-distance cross-check has cross-mission coverage (Viking, Pathfinder) sufficient to isolate partial drift collinear with the guidance-generation indicators rather than only gross divergence at the modern endpoint.

query_terms: Viking Pathfinder achieved miss distance reconstruction series

query_terms: convention drift netting ellipse construction Mars EDL

query_terms: partial collinear drift guidance generation differencing


q: State the calendar window of comparable observations required to distinguish a sustained science-driven secular trend from a small number of discrete one-time level shifts (Viking-to-Pathfinder airbag heritage; MSL guided entry; Mars 2020 TRN), and if a 3-4 step-function model fits the eleven points as well as or better than the smooth log-linear learning curve, present the model-comparison fit statistic (information criterion / out-of-sample fit) on which the constant-proportional-rate interpretation is retained rather than read as a staircase of level shifts.

query_terms: step function versus log linear learning curve model comparison information criterion

query_terms: level shift versus secular trend short series identification

query_terms: discrete breakpoint Mars EDL contraction AIC BIC


q: Commit a number for the conjectured irreducible three-sigma ellipse floor toward which the series asymptotes, decomposed into residual atmospheric-density/wind uncertainty at entry interface, IMU/FADS sensor-resolution limit, MRO/CTX onboard-map georeference accuracy, and divert-fuel reachability; an aggregate contraction series read without its lower bound is undefined. The four physical sub-budgets and the floor were not retrievable.

query_terms: irreducible Mars landing ellipse floor error budget asymptote

query_terms: MRO CTX onboard map georeference accuracy limit

query_terms: IMU FADS sensor resolution divert fuel reachability floor


q: State the within-eleven-point diagnostic distinguishing still on the steep part of an S-curve from approaching the asymptote (monotone decline in successive log-decrements, the second difference of ln area across guidance generations, curvature of residuals against sequence); if no such diagnostic separates the regimes on the candidate's series, on what ground is the learning rate reported as a transportable price for the next vehicle rather than a regime-local, level-conditional quantity?

query_terms: second difference log decrement saturation diagnostic learning curve

query_terms: S-curve steep regime versus asymptote approach detection

query_terms: regime local level conditional learning rate extrapolation


q: Specify, from the PDS achieved-miss-distance series and NTRS reconstruction provenance bands, the empirical test licensing forward extrapolation: do realized-capability decrements match the design-ellipse decrements at the last two guidance generations, or has realized capability already flattened relative to the design ellipse? Absent recent-end agreement, no forward project may read a price off the curve. The recent-end realized-vs-design decrement comparison was not retrievable.

query_terms: realized miss distance versus design ellipse decrement recent generations

query_terms: forward extrapolation licensing recent end agreement series

query_terms: PDS achieved accuracy flattening relative design ellipse


q: Name the census observation that lets the data separate the lever from the directed institution: GuidedEntry/RangeTrigger/TRN are binaries on the artifact while a generic Sequence index absorbs the directed Mars program that built, flight-tested, and trusted the hardware. The InSight counterfactual separates artifact-from-time but not artifact-from-institution, because InSight was produced inside the same NASA/JPL apparatus; the artifact-from-institution separation is not identified at this n.

raised_by: mazzucato

query_terms: technology artifact versus directed public program identification

query_terms: mission oriented innovation institution confound learning curve

query_terms: lever outside originating institution census observation


q: Build a continuous public-capability-stock measure independent of the artifacts (retained JPL EDL/GNC headcount, recurrence of named reconstruction authors across the Karlgaard NTRS lineage, sustained mission-to-mission EDL funding) and regress ln(EllipseArea) on it alongside the binary block: does the contraction load on the artifacts or on the standing capability stock that produced them?

query_terms: retained public capability stock NTRS author recurrence reconstruction lineage

query_terms: JPL EDL GNC headcount funding continuity index

query_terms: dynamic capability public sector measure regressor


q: State the observable in TechPort technology-insertion and program-structure records that distinguishes a directional, capability-building, spillover-generating mission lever from a re-badged procurement line item, and show whether GuidedEntry, RangeTrigger and TRN generated cross-program spillover (heritage reuse outside the originating mission) or stayed locked to the vehicle that bought them; the candidate's design has not coded these infusion edges.

query_terms: TechPort technology infusion cross program spillover edge

query_terms: guided entry TRN heritage reuse outside originating mission

query_terms: directional mission lever versus procurement line item observable


q: Using NTRS author affiliations across the reconstruction lineage and the Mars 2020 LVS reference-map pipeline plus TechPort technology-transfer records, classify each lever as a retained public asset (reusable across architectures and centers) or a capability concentrated in a single prime not transferable without re-procurement; does the prescriptive-knowledge premise behind H1's extensible claim survive that provenance audit for all three levers, or only the ones whose codification stayed inside the public agency? The affiliation classification is run only partially (TRN), not for GuidedEntry or RangeTrigger.

facet: economics

query_terms: NTRS author affiliation retained public asset versus prime contractor

query_terms: codified prescriptive knowledge provenance audit extensibility

query_terms: value capture distribution public versus private EDL lever


q: Specify an independent propositional-base metric for the range trigger relative to TRN, and a graded scale (theory breadth, citation depth, codification age) that converts the qualitative macro/micro labels into a ranking testable against rather than read from the ellipse series; theory-maturity dating orders guided entry versus TRN, but the three-way macro/macro/micro ordering remains a partly untested prior until the range-trigger base is dated independently.

raised_by: mokyr

query_terms: range trigger parachute deploy propositional base maturity date

query_terms: macro invention versus incremental graded scale codification age

query_terms: independent theory breadth metric EDL lever ranking


q: Fit the across-reuse slope of the predict-versus-flight residual for each lever as the extensibility indicator (not the single per-insertion level shift), and supply the reuse-improvement series for the range trigger and guided entry analogous to the documented TRN trajectory (2015 relevant-environment test through Mars 2020 assessment); without it the learning curve cannot show whether the level-shift staircase is cumulative deepening or disconnected one-time gains for those two levers.

query_terms: predict versus flight residual slope across reuse instances

query_terms: guided entry range trigger reuse improvement series cross mission

query_terms: extensibility indicator compounding transfer EDL lever


q: Construct the dated codification series of the specific reconstruction/modeling methods (Karlgaard statistical reconstruction, Lander Vision System map-building pipeline, entry-guidance algorithms) as a series independent of the guidance-lever flight dates, and test whether accuracy improvements track method-codification dates (a knowledge-access-cost effect) or lever-flight dates (a technology-insertion effect); the InSight counterfactual cannot break this because InSight was reconstructed by the same apparatus.

query_terms: reconstruction method codification date versus guidance lever flight date

query_terms: knowledge access cost localized spillover JPL Langley EDL

query_terms: Karlgaard reconstruction Lander Vision System codification reusable date


q: MODERATOR MISSING ANGLE: bring the available external comparison series in-sample. Tianwen-1 (2021) flew guided entry in the modern era as a technology-on case in a different value network (mirror image of InSight's technology-off case), and has a published reconstructed entry/atmosphere trajectory and a landing site positioned in Utopia Planitia; in-sampling it converts the single-case InSight discrimination into a two-point technology-discordant design that survives the loss of either point and partially separates artifact-from-institution. Establish whether Tianwen-1's reconstruction conventions are commensurable with the NTRS series, and if so, justify why the only available second discriminating observation is held out of sample.

raised_by: moderator

query_terms: Tianwen-1 Mars entry atmosphere trajectory reconstruction

query_terms: Tianwen-1 landing site positioning Utopia Planitia accuracy

query_terms: interrupted time series comparison series two discordant observations Mars EDL

query_terms: cross-agency reconstruction convention commensurability Tianwen InSight