UNANSWERED on the decisive empirical particular: no retrieval this turn produced, from the candidate's own cited NTRS reconstruction record, a specific Mars landing LOSS or anomaly (MSL/Phoenix/InSight/Mars 2020) with a documented attribution to an element INTERACTION rather than a single element, together with the numeric value the additive index assigns it versus a pairwise-interaction term. NTRS API returned zero on the heritage-interaction string; OpenAlex/Crossref returned the MSL parachute qualification literature but not a loss-attribution-to-interaction case with index arithmetic. The structural proof (mean is interaction-blind) stands; the falsifying instance demanded by the question is not in hand and is not fabricated.

Mars landing anomaly interaction not single element

EDL system-level loss reconstruction NTRS


REFUSED on the empirical claim: no GAO program-history evidence on the independence-vs-co-determination of heritage choice and the three controls was retrievable this turn (NTRS returned zero; OpenAlex GAO/heritage queries returned unrelated remote-sensing and TRL works, not the program-history independence record). The methodological structure of the challenge is sound and citable, the candidate's own Fogel caveat concedes the design does not capture general-equilibrium heritage-availability effects, and Ackoff's expansionism principle holds that a boundary is defensible only by expansion into the containing purposeful system, not by amputation; if a single upstream program decision jointly sets heritage, target body, mass budget, and qualification depth, the controls are endogenous and beta_1 is not identified as an independent effect. But the specific GAO independence evidence the question demands is ABSENT, so no factual claim about what the GAO record shows is asserted.

GAO program history heritage control endogeneity

upstream program decision EDL architecture funding


REFUSED on the predictive-validity claim: settling whether the population-average heritage coefficient has out-of-sample predictive purchase on the NOVEL-integration tail of the candidate's TechPort/NTRS record requires that out-of-sample evaluation from the candidate's own dataset, which is not retrievable from the open corpora or vault gap-fill this turn. Ackoff's wrong-problem / solve-vs-dissolve distinction is fully grounded and frames the priority concern, a rigorous answer to 'how much should we weight reuse' can be an efficient answer to a mis-posed question if the right question is 'which novel integrations are safe to attempt and how should the qualification regime be redesigned', and the candidate explicitly scopes the novel-integration cases out (crewed-class, novel decelerators, future fleet). But the empirical demonstration the question demands is ABSENT here, so no claim about the coefficient's predictive validity on the novel tail is asserted.

novel-integration decision out-of-sample EDL heritage


No TechPort/NTRS/GAO source retrieved this turn supplies the COUNT of heritage-overridden-for-cause EDL decision rows (novel element chosen against the average heritage signal, correct because heritage could not meet the mass-target class). Named SRP/high-mass-EDL technology-development records exist (NTRS 20120014589; AIAA 2009-6684; Korzun 2014) and qualitatively confirm heritage low-mass architectures do not feed forward to high landed mass, but none is a counted decision-row ledger. The numeric count demanded is therefore unestablished and is not asserted.

count heritage-overridden EDL decisions GAO TechPort

novel decelerator chosen heritage insufficient


The induced-attempt channel (count of proposed novel-EDL missions de-scoped, descoped, or never flown because a heritage alternative existed) was not measurable from any GAO/TechPort program-history source retrieved this turn. The systems argument that this channel exists is grounded (Ackoff feedback/expansionism), but the finite observable measure is absent, so the direct measurement the question requests cannot be supplied.

de-scoped novel EDL mission heritage alternative count


The paired demonstration, two novel EDL elements with identical average heritage scores requiring different qualification depths to reach equal acceptable residual risk, via a Mokyr propositional-vs-ungrounded decomposition over TechPort qualification histories, is not supported by any retrieved source. Neither the Mokyr decomposition applied to EDL elements nor the paired qualification-depth records were returned by AMOS, ACTA, Space Economy, NTRS, or OpenAlex; the demonstration is unestablished.

two EDL elements identical heritage different qualification depth


No count exists of attempts whose envelope coding could be settled only via post-mortem reconstruction (outcome-contaminated rows), and no fitted beta_1 exists to test sign-survival after excluding them, because the study is design-stage and the attempt frame is unpopulated. The unfalsifiability-by-construction charge therefore cannot be empirically retired or confirmed from the current artifact; it can only be answered by executing the pre-registered protocol and reporting the realized recode count and the with/without-row beta_1.

post-mortem dependent envelope recode count EDL

outcome-contaminated heritage coding rows


No realized correlation between the heritage-reuse index and the program-strength index, and no variance-inflation figure, exist on the assembled frame, because the frame is unpopulated and the collinearity diagnostic has not been run. Whether identification of an independent heritage effect is achievable, or whether the two regressors are one value-network construct measured twice, remains an open empirical question answerable only by executing the pre-registered diagnostic and reporting the realized r and VIF.

heritage index program-strength VIF collinearity EDL

penalized logistic separation multicollinearity


No count exists of attempts in which novel EDL elements were introduced because the heritage element was documented as inadequate for the target job, because the frame is unpopulated. More substantively, the dissertation's separation of risk-from-novelty from novelty-forced-by-a-harder-job rests on (i) the assumption that mass/target controls absorb the difficulty component and (ii) a direction-of-bias argument (attenuation toward zero) rather than an outcome construct that segments by 'the job the architecture was hired to do.' The panelist's specific Christensen worry, that the binary, job-blind outcome rewards succeeding at an easier job and penalizes a heritage element retired for inadequacy, is acknowledged in direction but not bounded in magnitude, and the residual after the mass controls is neither counted nor estimated.

job-blind binary outcome EDL heritage difficulty confound

count inadequacy-forced novelty EDL attempts


No across-boundary stability test exists in the dissertation. Retrieval found zero instances of 'structural break,' 'regime indicator,' or 'transportability,' and the candidate explicitly states the controls 'interpolate within the observed range and do not extrapolate beyond it.' The falsifiable transport condition (Q2) is therefore named in theory but NOT operationalized or executed: the candidate has run no heritage-index x regime-indicator interaction, no structural-break check, and no transportability analysis, so the precondition for letting beta_1 inform a forward crewed-architecture decision is unmet on the record.

structural break regime indicator transportability EDL heritage

extrapolation beyond observed mass range EDL


Open empirical gap (not refused at the method level, but unfilled in the record): no named, TechPort/TRL-grounded substitute landing architecture (specific aeroshell, decelerator, terminal-guidance, touchdown elements) at the InSight or Mars 2020 entry/landed masses with a record-estimable failure rate is retrievable from AMOS, ACTA, Space Economy, or NTRS this turn. The per-row counterfactual instantiation, the minimum detectable effect size, the sign-stability sweep of beta_1 across the substitute-maturity range, and the specific falsifying value of the Mokyr propositional-novelty coefficient are all the candidate's to produce; none can be supplied from the queried corpus without confabulation.

substitute landing architecture record-estimable failure rate

per-row counterfactual EDL heritage primary data


Unfilled empirical deliverable: the candidate has not estimated a heritage coefficient on a continuous schedule-and-cost saving outcome (the time-and-money quantity, conditional on both heritage and the next-best novel architecture succeeding), and no retrieved source this turn supplies that coefficient, its sign, its magnitude, or its comparison to the binary failure coefficient. The GAO/TechPort substrate the candidate already names makes the outcome constructible, but the second regression must be run and its heritage coefficient compared against the binary one before any 'the effect relocates rather than refutes' claim can be made.

heritage coefficient continuous schedule-cost outcome EDL

cost growth NASA major project GAO heritage


Unfilled identification deliverable: the candidate has not assembled the auxiliary population of cancelled/deferred unflown novel-EDL concepts, has not estimated the selection probability that a novel architecture reaches a landing attempt as a function of its heritage index, and has not signed the resulting censoring correction to beta_1 (upper vs. lower bound). The candidate's existing attenuation-toward-zero claim concerns within-attempted-mission element selection, not the between-frame censoring of concepts that never flew. NTRS and the space corpora do not enumerate that unflown census this turn, so the bound-direction-from-censoring is the candidate's to construct from the raw GAO/TechPort/concept-study record and is currently unanswered.

auxiliary population cancelled novel EDL concept selection bound

left-censoring unflown EDL attempt heritage index


Unfilled empirical deliverable: the candidate has not stated an ex-ante permutation-interval width or minimum detectable effect on beta_1, and no retrieved source can supply it because the number must be produced by running the candidate's seeded Firth-penalized simulation on the frozen covariate structure. The candidate's own text declines to give the number in advance. The required deliverable is either an ex-ante MDE computed on the assembled frame or an explicit advance statement that the design's likely output is a bound too wide to distinguish heavy from light heritage portfolio weight, with the width itself as the contribution; until one is produced, whether the design can bound the social saving tightly enough to choose between the rival readings is unanswered.

minimum detectable effect ex-ante EDL heritage frame

permutation interval width separation structure logistic


UNANSWERED EMPIRICALLY (Q2 mechanism). The candidate cannot measure, from named sources, what fraction of a lineage's protective effect survives a discontinuity in the tacit-knowledge-holding team. The heritage index by construction reads only codified residue (NTRS reconstruction reports, TechPort TRL) and the dissertation concedes it 'cannot see tacit knowledge.' A targeted scan of the Moon/Mars/Titan frame found ZERO occurrences of every team-continuity construct the settle requires: 'different prime' (0), 'same team' (0), 'generational' (0), 'personnel gap' (0), 'institutionally distinct' (0), 'originating team' (0), 'institutional continuity' (0). Organizational flight experience enters the model ONLY as the program-strength CONTROL (a confounder), never as a partitioning variable that decouples reconstruction-report depth from team continuity. The supporting literature (Jaffe et al. 1993; NASA/DOD STI-diffusion project) confirms the threat is real - patent-citation evidence shows knowledge spillovers cluster near their source and the producer-to-user transfer mechanism is 'poorly understood' - but the candidate's frame contains no row holding reconstruction depth constant while team continuity breaks, so the claim that the codified artifact, not the team, does the work is NOT testable against this dataset. Refuse to assert a measured fraction.

tacit knowledge team turnover EDL heritage protective effect

knowledge spillover localized aerospace STI diffusion


UNANSWERED EMPIRICALLY (Q3 identification). The candidate cannot show, from named sources, heritage predicting success on cross-organization reuse rows (reusing team institutionally distinct from originating team) versus within-program reuse rows, because the frame contains no such partition. Scan found 'cross-organization' (0), 'cross-program' (0), 'organizational boundary' (0), 'intra-program' (0); only one 'within-program' usage and it refers to within-program-strength STRATA of the confounder control, not to a diffusion-channel partition. The worked dependence the design discusses (InSight reusing Phoenix) is treated as 'two attempts by the SAME program in the same lineage' whose non-independence is captured as signal in the regressor - i.e., within-program reuse - not as a cross-org diffusion test. The Mokyr access-cost condition (codification effect must cross program/organizational boundaries; Jaffe et al. 1993 doi:10.2307/2118401 shows spillovers are geographically/institutionally localized; NTRS 19960052732 flags producer-to-user STI transfer as poorly understood) is therefore neither operationalized nor tested. Without the cross-org vs within-program partition, the design cannot distinguish a Mokyrian codification effect from an institutional-continuity effect; the Mokyr interpretation of beta_1 is unsupported by the frame as built. Refuse to claim the effect diffuses across boundaries.

cross-organization versus within-program EDL reuse partition

codification effect crosses organizational boundary heritage


REFUSED on the operative ask (the sign of the conditional reconstruction-depth coefficient). The dissertation is design-stage: no coefficient has been fitted on the full population ('No coefficient has been fitted... The central deliverable is the pre-registered, falsifiable design'). The model already separates the codification channel from age in TWO ways the question presumes are missing: (a) the reconstruction-depth weighting is OPTIONAL and the index is reported both with and without it 'so that any heritage effect can be attributed to the reconstruction-depth channel or shown to be independent of it'; (b) novelty is decomposed into propositionally-grounded vs. ungrounded components. But the candidate explicitly CONCEDES the depth-vs-flight-count test is unresolvable in-frame: the prediction that a lineage's protective effect rises with reconstruction depth, not merely flight count, is 'testable in principle... though the small frame may not resolve it, and the framework states that resolution limit honestly rather than promising a test the sample cannot support.' So whether a thinly-reconstructed prior flight confers as much protection as a deeply-reconstructed one is, on the candidate's own admission, NOT decidable from this design's data. No retrieved source (ACTA, AMOS, candidate corpus, Crossref spacecraft-reliability datasets) supplies a fitted conditional reconstruction-depth coefficient for EDL heritage. The sign is therefore unestablished and must not be asserted.

conditional reconstruction-depth coefficient EDL heritage sign

spacecraft reliability reconstruction depth prior flight


REFUSED on the count. No number exists for high-heritage losses caused by operating beyond the qualified regime, because the study is design-stage (dataset not yet coded) and neither the candidate's corpus nor the space-domain corpora retrieved this turn supply such a tally. The ex-ante operability of the docking rule is grounded (see mokyr_r2_c1); the empirical magnitude of heritage-induced failure is not.

high-heritage loss beyond qualified regime tally EDL


REFUSED. This is a genuine unaddressed gap in the candidate's design. The dissertation's documentation-asymmetry treatment concerns the CODER'S access to reconstruction reports (it flags poorly-documented rows and re-estimates with them excluded), NOT the REUSING PROGRAM'S access to the originating codified knowledge. No access-cost partition keyed to the reuser's position in the diffusion network (same-agency vs. foreign/firewalled/pre-publication) exists anywhere in the design, the 149-row corpus, or the analysis plan; the candidate's corpus returns zero rows touching diffusion-access, firewalling, or foreign-program reach. The premise that this partition matters is itself well-supported by Mokyr's access-cost thesis (codification is not diffusion; the Industrial Enlightenment succeeded by cheaply connecting those who knew why with those who knew how) and by the NASA/DoD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project finding that the mechanisms by which scientific and technical information diffuses from producers to users are 'poorly understood' (NTRS 19960052732) - i.e., aerospace STI diffusion is demonstrably sticky, so the partition could in principle discriminate codified-knowledge transfer from mere architectural age. But the partitioned heritage effect itself (attenuate / vanish / identical) cannot be reported: the candidate has not specified or run the partition, and no retrieved source supplies the partitioned estimate. The identification test the question demands is currently non-executable on this design, which is a real limitation distinct from the team-turnover gap because it concerns the reconstruction artifact's REACH to the reuser rather than the reusing team's identity.

reuser access originating reconstruction EDL diffusion partition

aerospace knowledge diffusion producer to user


The candidate CANNOT produce the demanded scored values. The dissertation is design-stage by its own binding posture: no heritage_index is computed and no beta_1 is fitted on any row (Sec 5.0, 6.4.5). The element scoring rule, anchor cases (InSight high, Vikram low, Mars 2020 mid), and the audit log are SPECIFIED but not EXECUTED on the full frame, so the actual NTRS/TechPort-derived element scores for even three lunar rows do not yet exist. The conceptual rebuttal (regime-aware coding) is grounded; the empirical demonstration parasuraman demands is unavailable until the rubric is run.

EDL heritage element scored values lunar rows

regime-aware coding autonomy software requalified


No such disaggregation test has been run or specified. The six-element decomposition is fixed in advance with autonomy/GN&C/hazard-avoidance carried in one 'terminal guidance and hazard avoidance' bin (Sec 4.4.1). The only re-specification in the analysis plan is the Mokyr grounded-versus-ungrounded NOVELTY split (Sec 6.4.3), which is orthogonal to Parasuraman's information/decision/action stage taxonomy. The candidate's own power statement undercuts the requested split: confidence in even the two-way novelty decomposition is rated 'low to moderate' because 'splitting an already-scarce novelty signal into two components strains the small frame's power' (Sec 6.4.3, frame ~ several dozen rows, Sec 4.8.1). A finer software-function disaggregation is neither in the design nor power-feasible on the frame, so whether it would move beta_1 is unestablished. Retrieval supports the premise that the failure-relevant novelty is software-resident (Wander, Fatal Software Failures in Spaceflight) but not that the candidate has tested the disaggregation.

software function disaggregation beta1 EDL power

Parasuraman stage taxonomy EDL autonomy failure


The inter-coder reliability data restricted to the autonomy/software elements, which parasuraman names as the settling evidence, does not exist. Sec 4.7 specifies a blind second-coder check on a random subsample with a pre-registered agreement target, but Sec 4.7 and 4.8.1 state it 'has not yet been executed on the full frame, so the reliability statistics that would raise confidence to high do not yet exist,' with the contested middle of the heritage distribution explicitly flagged as where poor agreement would surface. There is therefore no element-restricted kappa or agreement statistic showing coders apply the regime-bounded rule consistently to reused-but-requalified autonomy software. The rule disambiguates in principle; the demonstrated coding consistency on the autonomy elements is absent.

inter-coder reliability autonomy software EDL kappa

requalified software grounded versus ungrounded coding


STAGE-RESOLVED COUNTEREXAMPLE UNRETRIEVABLE. The candidate's named EDL loss documents (Vikram/Chandrayaan-2 loss report, MSL and Mars 2020 reconstruction reports, SLIM result) returned zero hits in AMOS, ACTA, Space Economy, the parasuraman thinker brain, and NTRS this turn. The grounded expert therefore cannot exhibit any loss coded HIGH-heritage-hardware whose proximate cause sits at a different Parasuraman processing stage, and cannot demonstrate the index scores it HIGH where it should score LOW. The construct gap stands (a single 'terminal guidance and hazard avoidance' element with no stage tag cannot discriminate flight-proven hardware from flight-proven autonomy, so beta_1 may conflate two heritage constructs), but the document-level proof Parasuraman asked for is absent from retrieval and is asserted by neither side.

Vikram Chandrayaan-2 loss report stage attribution

SLIM fatal software failure spaceflight EDL stage


INTERVENTION-FAILURE vs ARCHITECTURE-FAILURE COUNT UNRETRIEVABLE. The out-of-the-loop confound is a verified Parasuraman mechanism: an operator who has ceded continuous control is slow and error-prone if suddenly required to intervene (Parasuraman, Sheridan & Wickens 2000, 10.1109/3468.844354), and high-reliability automation predictably erodes the monitoring meant to backstop it, so 'the human will catch it' is an unfalsified assumption (Parasuraman, Molloy & Singh 1993, 10.1207/s15327108ijap0301_1). That makes the confound plausible in principle: a binary 'vehicle lost' construct can attribute to architectural novelty what is actually a failed or physically-impossible (light-time-delayed) supervisory backstop. BUT the NTRS reconstruction reports and the Vikram and Beresheet investigation records needed to classify each loss as intervention-failure vs architecture-failure returned zero hits this turn (NTRS API returned 0 results for the EDL queries). No count can be produced and no claim about differential distribution across the heritage index can be made. Refused on evidence.

intervention failure count EDL Vikram Beresheet supervisory

automation-induced monitoring erosion landing


PRE-FLIGHT-ONLY ENVELOPE COUNT UNRETRIEVABLE. The 'flown outside its proven envelope' rule is exactly the misuse/over-reliance (mis-calibrated trust) failure mode in the Parasuraman framework, and the concern that the envelope may be defined post-hoc by the failure investigation is a legitimate outcome-leakage seam. Settling it requires (a) an operational pre-flight envelope-fixing rule and (b) a count from TechPort TRL history and NTRS qualification documentation of rows boundable from pre-flight qualification records alone vs rows whose envelope was set by the investigation. Retrieval this turn surfaced only a grey heritage-assessment-methodology item (TUM repository, no DOI) and returned zero NTRS/TechPort qualification records for the specific attempts; the candidate's qualification corpus was not retrievable. The grounded expert cannot state the operational rule from sources, cannot produce either count, and so cannot determine what fraction of LOW-heritage scores are outcome-determined. The construct risk is real and unrebutted; the empirical adjudication is refused for absence of evidence.

pre-flight envelope-fixing rule count TechPort TRL EDL

qualification documentation envelope boundary EDL


The dissertation reports NO count of matched within-lineage discordant pairs (the Mars Polar Lander->Phoenix->InSight near-replication chain reusing one architecture under varying program strength), and NO fitted beta_1 (Chapter 6 is non-empirical; Table 6.1 is an unpopulated template). No retrieved source supplies that discordant-pair count. Therefore the question 'is beta_1 identified independently of the program-strength term, or a partial correlation program strength soaks up by construction' cannot be settled from the present record: the identifying count that would decide it is absent, and by the candidate's own Sec 5.5.4 contract its absence/insufficiency is a self-declared falsification condition rather than a resolved identification claim.

matched within-lineage discordant pair count EDL

identification beta1 independent program strength


The dissertation names a low-documentation EXCLUSION robustness member and a theoretical (Mokyr/Perez) defense of documentation weighting, but supplies NO second, independent, non-documentation-weighted operationalization of heritage for a discriminant convergent/divergent test, and NO pre-registered falsifying value for the correlation between heritage score and documentation-density-per-row. No retrieved source supplies that discriminant operationalization or threshold. The measurement question, whether beta_1 tracks architectural lineage or instrumentation-and-era catalogue drift, therefore cannot be resolved from the present record.

discriminant validity heritage documentation correlation threshold

independent non-documentation heritage operationalization


The dissertation concedes the selection-into-the-frame (left-censoring of cancelled/descoped/never-flown novel attempts) threat and explicitly leaves its bias direction uncaptured rather than conservative, and it already lists TechPort EDL-technology records and GAO program history among its sources, yet it reports NO selection-into-attempt rate comparison (novel vs heritage architectures) on the funded-but-never-reached-attempt population that would reveal whether the bias is conservative or adverse. No retrieved source supplies that selection-rate comparison. The sign of the selection bias on beta_1 therefore cannot be established from the present record.

selection bias sign conservative adverse EDL heritage

funded-but-never-flown EDL technology program


No executed leave-one-out path of beta_1, no standardized influence statistics, and no permutation interval exist to retrieve, because the candidate's frozen artifact is design-stage with no fitted coefficient (dissertation lines 127, 900). The destructive jackknife taleb demands is specified as a planned robustness member but cannot be settled from any retrievable result; it can only be answered once the model is executed on the assembled rows.

executed leave-one-out beta1 influence statistics EDL

permutation interval fitted coefficient EDL heritage


No calibrated null simulation (parametric bootstrap under H0 at the realized n, failure rate, and separation structure) is reported in the candidate's document, so the false-positive rate of the Firth estimator at this design is unmeasured and the requested fraction-of-synthetic-draws number does not exist to retrieve.

calibrated null type-I error Firth EDL design

false-positive rate penalized logistic separation


No produced inter-coder coding log showing strictly-before-outcome scoring and no pre-flight-qualification-only re-score exist; the inter-coder reliability check and blind sequencing are described as 'The plan' (line 854) with no realized agreement statistic, so the count of heritage scores that would change under envelope-coding-severed-from-hindsight cannot be retrieved or settled.

inter-coder agreement kappa EDL heritage coding realized

blind sequencing envelope hindsight re-score count


No retrieved source establishes that the candidate's contribution AS WRITTEN supplies the ruin/survival-weighted portfolio loss function (distinct from the logistic mean) that the absorbing-barrier case requires. The frame shows the mean is the wrong object and names the right object's shape (bounded-exposure survival loss / barbell), but whether beta_1 has been embedded in such a decision rule is unverified. Refused as to the candidate's specific contribution; the design must exhibit the ruin-weighted loss or concede it optimizes the ensemble average of a non-ergodic process.

ruin-weighted portfolio loss function EDL contribution

survival barbell decision rule heritage non-ergodic


No retrieved source establishes whether the candidate's four named sources (NTRS reconstruction reports, global attempt record, TechPort lineage, GAO program history) can actually MEASURE the cross-attempt correlation heritage induces in failure. The per-attempt-independent index is structurally blind to fleet-level common-mode correlation by construction; whether the data can recover the correlated-heritage-mode tail (the named falsifying observation) is unverified and is the candidate's burden to demonstrate.

cross-attempt correlation heritage failure measurement sources

fleet-level common-mode tail heritage data


No retrieved source establishes whether the candidate's dataset can DISTINGUISH heritage decisions made by tail-exposed actors (a crewed program) from those made by tail-insulated actors. Absent that separation, the skin-in-the-game frame implies a beta_1 pooled over both populations cannot be trusted to set a crewed-class qualification bar; the candidate must either demonstrate the separation or disclaim the crewed-portfolio use.

distinguish tail-exposed insulated heritage decision crewed-class

pooled beta1 crewed qualification bar skin in game


Can you exhibit, from the NTRS reconstruction record you cite (MSL, Phoenix, InSight, Mars 2020), at least one attempt whose element-wise heritage was high but whose loss/anomaly was attributed to an element INTERACTION rather than a single element, and show what value your additive (weighted-mean of six element scores) index assigns it versus a pairwise-interaction term?

Mars landing loss coupled-system attribution

parachute aeroshell interaction qualification


Can you produce evidence from the GAO program-history reports you name that heritage choice and your three controls (target body, entry mass, program-strength) are assigned independently, rather than co-determined by a single upstream programmatic decision, which would mean beta_1 is estimated on an amputated system rather than a bounded one?

GAO NASA program heritage selection independence

heritage choice co-determined target mass program decision


Using your own TechPort/NTRS data, can you demonstrate that the average heritage coefficient actually predicts the outcome of the NOVEL-integration decisions the portfolio must make, rather than predicting only the already-decided heritage-heavy attempts where the real decision risk does not live?

heritage coefficient predictive validity novel integration

out-of-sample EDL heritage prediction TechPort


A backward-looking average heritage coefficient (beta_1) lowers AVERAGE landing-failure probability across past attempts, but the containing decision system makes FORWARD per-integration go/no-go calls (sky-crane vs. SRP vs. inflatable decelerator at a higher mass-target class). Exhibit at least one named TechPort/NTRS/GAO record where the portfolio chose a novel EDL element AGAINST the average heritage signal and was correct because the heritage architecture could not do the job at that mass class, and give the COUNT of such heritage-overridden-for-cause decisions; if more than a handful, optimizing the average coefficient is solving the wrong problem exactly.

heritage overridden novel EDL element mass class

supersonic retropropulsion chosen against heritage


Fogel's induced-effect warning (cited by the candidate) says heritage availability changes WHICH missions get attempted, so a precisely-measured protective heritage effect fed back as portfolio guidance can suppress the very novel integrations that would expand the reachable mission set. From named GAO/TechPort program-history records, can the induced-attempt channel be measured directly: the count of proposed novel-EDL missions de-scoped, descoped, or never flown because a heritage alternative existed? If unobservable, on what basis is a backward average coefficient the correct decision object for a forward portfolio whose purpose is to expand what can be landed?

induced attempt channel novel EDL descoped heritage available

Fogel induced effect mission selection space


The sponsor's real decision is 'how DEEP must the qualification regime be for a given novel integration before residual risk is acceptable' (a redesign of the qualification rule), not a parameter on past outcomes. Using the Mokyr propositional-vs-ungrounded decomposition and TechPort qualification histories, show that two novel elements with IDENTICAL average heritage scores demanded DIFFERENT qualification depths to reach the same acceptable residual risk, which would prove the average heritage coefficient is non-actionable at the decision point and a qualification-depth object is the variable the portfolio needs.

qualification depth novel EDL residual risk

Mokyr propositional knowledge qualification regime


Whether an element was 'flown well outside its proven envelope' is most cleanly established by the failure investigation itself, so the LOW-heritage recode of a confident over-fit failure may be settled by post-mortem reconstruction and thereby absorbed as evidence FOR H1. Show, from the blind pre-registered coding protocol applied to the actual attempt set, the count of attempts whose envelope coding could only be settled using post-mortem reconstruction, and demonstrate that excluding those rows does not flip the sign of beta_1.

envelope coding post-mortem reconstruction outcome contamination

blind pre-registered EDL heritage coding


If the GAO-derived program-strength index is collinear with the heritage index, heritage's independent value cannot be identified (the candidate concedes this). Report the actual correlation between the heritage-reuse index and the program-strength index, and the variance inflation, on the assembled attempt frame, so the panel can see whether a real heritage effect or a re-labeled value-network proxy is being estimated.

heritage program-strength correlation variance inflation

collinearity heritage value-network index


A job-blind binary success/failure outcome conflates risk-from-novelty with novelty-forced-by-a-harder-job: Mars 2020 added terrain-relative navigation to do a NEW job (hazardous high-value terrain) the heritage MSL architecture could not, so a heritage element retired for inadequacy is coded as novelty and its risk loads against H1. Provide the count of attempts where novel EDL elements were introduced because the heritage element was documented as inadequate for the target job, and show how the coding distinguishes risk-from-novelty from novelty-forced-by-a-harder-mission.

risk-from-novelty versus novelty-forced harder job EDL

terrain relative navigation new job heritage inadequate


Name, from your own named sources, the measurable boundary variable that separates the sustaining regime beta_1 is fit on from the disruptive crewed-class/novel-decelerator/autonomy regime you want it to inform, and report whether ANY frame row crosses that boundary. If none do, beta_1 has no in-sample support on the population the decision lives in.

regime boundary sustaining disruptive EDL mass class

in-sample support crewed-class novel decelerator


State the falsifiable transport condition: under what measurable relationship between heritage-element regime and target-mission regime does beta_1 estimated in the sustaining regime become ZERO or WRONG-SIGNED in the disruptive regime, and what test of relationship stability ACROSS the boundary (not within-frame robustness) must you run before beta_1 may inform a forward crewed-architecture decision?

transportability heritage coefficient regime structural break

heritage regime-indicator interaction EDL


Identify the auxiliary observation set (GAO and TechPort records of EDL technology programs that pursued novel decelerators or autonomy-driven descent for higher-mass / new-body jobs) that would let you estimate whether the heritage-protection slope CHANGES sign or magnitude off the sustaining trajectory; and state what value of that slope-change would demonstrate beta_1 has zero transport validity onto the forward decision it is sold to support.

auxiliary off-trajectory novel decelerator TechPort GAO slope change

transport validity heritage coefficient crewed


beta_1 is defined as the failure-probability change an attempt would have faced under its next-best novel-architecture counterfactual at the same target and mass, but the population has essentially no rows where the SAME mission flew under both heritage levels, only a logistic fit across non-comparable missions. Name the concrete substitute landing system for the InSight / Mars 2020 rows (specific aeroshell, decelerator, terminal-guidance, touchdown elements at that exact entry/landed mass and target, drawn from TechPort TRL records and NASA high-mass EDL studies) and show it was an actually-available alternative with a record-estimable failure rate, not a logistic shadow inferred where it was never built.

next-best substitute landing architecture InSight Mars 2020

TechPort TRL alternative aeroshell decelerator failure rate


Fogel's discipline is a bounded social saving, not a point coefficient: an explicit upper and lower bound on how much worse the SAME landing task performs under the substitute, from primary data. With a few dozen one-shot trials, Firth penalization, a heritage index plus four controls: what is the minimum detectable effect size, and over what range of substitute-failure assumptions (best case: wind-tunnel-matured supersonic retropropulsion; worst case: ungrounded first-flight software) does the sign of beta_1 stay stable? If the bound straddles zero across that range, on what basis is heritage's protective value measured rather than asserted?

minimum detectable effect Firth logistic small sample EDL

sign stability substitute maturity heritage coefficient


The indispensability-of-heritage claim reduces to an unmeasured substitution elasticity. Fogel's test is to name the finite observation that would overturn the thesis: what measured value of the propositionally-grounded-novelty coefficient in the Mokyr decomposition, drawn from the supersonic-retropropulsion and TRN flight/ground-test record, would force the conclusion that codified novel architectures carry no excess landing-failure risk over heritage, collapsing the heritage effect into a knowledge-codification proxy with no independent value? If no realized value of that coefficient could do so, the candidate is asserting an axiom of heritage indispensability, not testing one.

Mokyr propositional novelty coefficient falsifying value

supersonic retropropulsion TRN ground-test failure record


The outcome is a binary loss-of-vehicle indicator, but the railroad result turned on time saved, not catastrophe avoided: the social saving of the protective technology lived in the shadow price of schedule and cost. The real portfolio choice is rarely 'heritage survives vs. novelty is lost' but 'heritage flies on schedule vs. novelty succeeds two years late and a billion over.' From the GAO cost-and-schedule records and TechPort TRL-maturation histories you already name, construct a second outcome, the schedule-and-cost saving of choosing heritage over the next-best novel architecture conditional on BOTH succeeding, and report whether the heritage coefficient on that continuous time-and-money outcome agrees in sign and magnitude with the coefficient on the binary failure outcome. A heritage effect that vanishes on the binary outcome but is large on the time-and-cost outcome would relocate, not refute, the contribution.

schedule cost saving heritage versus novel architecture GAO

continuous cost-schedule outcome EDL heritage


You concede heritage availability changes which missions are attempted and file it as a caveat, but a market-access reassessment showed a partial counterfactual systematically misstates the total once the induced channel is modeled, and the sign of that bias is itself estimable. The GAO and TechPort records you name contain proposed-but-never-flown novel-architecture concepts that the realized landing-attempt frame censors out. Assemble that auxiliary population of cancelled or deferred novel-EDL concepts, estimate the selection probability that a novel architecture even reaches a landing attempt as a function of its heritage index, and report the direction and rough magnitude by which ignoring this censoring biases beta_1, so the reader learns whether your partial estimate is an upper or a lower bound on the true heritage effect.

selection probability novel architecture reaches landing attempt heritage

censored unflown novel EDL concept GAO TechPort bias sign


The railroad estimate was valuable because it was a bounded number narrow enough to falsify the indispensability consensus; a bound so wide it contains both zero and a decisive effect settles nothing. With a frame on the order of a few dozen one-shot trials, five regressors, and Firth penalization, report in advance, from the realized separation structure and event count, the width of the permutation interval on beta_1 you actually expect, and state honestly whether that interval is narrow enough to distinguish 'heritage worth heavy portfolio weight' from 'heritage worth little once physics and program strength are controlled,' or whether the pre-registered honest deliverable is that the design cannot bound the social saving tightly enough to choose between them, making the width of the bound, not its sign, the contribution.

ex-ante permutation interval width beta1 Firth EDL

bounded social saving narrow enough to falsify


If the heritage index is weighted by NTRS reconstruction depth, beta_1 and the Mokyr propositional sub-hypothesis may be the same latent variable measured twice. Specify the operational rule that keeps documented architectural lineage distinct from depth of codified propositional knowledge on the same row, and exhibit a divergent-sign row in the actual NTRS/TechPort-coded frame; if none exists, H1 and the sub-hypothesis are not separately testable.

heritage lineage versus reconstruction-depth divergent row

codified propositional knowledge distinct from lineage EDL


Mokyr's carrier of durable reliability is codified propositional knowing-why, but EDL competence is heavily tacit and localized. The heritage index reads only codified residue in NTRS/TechPort and cannot see tacit knowledge. From named sources, can the candidate measure what fraction of a lineage's protective effect survives a discontinuity in the tacit-knowledge-holding team (different prime, generational personnel gap), holding reconstruction depth constant, and is there any Moon/Mars/Titan row that decouples codified-artifact depth from team continuity?

tacit knowledge team discontinuity heritage protective fraction

EDL competence localized tacit knowledge transfer


For the protective effect to be a Mokyrian codification effect rather than a within-program reputation/continuity effect, the codified knowledge must demonstrably cross program and organizational boundaries (the access-cost condition). Can the candidate partition the frame into cross-organization reuse rows (reusing team institutionally distinct from originating team, public artifact the only channel) versus within-program reuse rows, and show heritage predicting success in the cross-org partition? If the effect is confined to within-program reuse, it measures institutional continuity, not the propositional base.

cross-organization reuse codification access cost EDL

within-program reuse institutional continuity heritage


Extract reconstruction-depth as an independent regressor (instrumented-and-reconstructed vs. flew-but-thinly-documented), enter it alongside the binary flew-before indicator, and report whether depth predicts lower failure hazard CONDITIONAL on prior flight. Which way does the conditional coefficient on reconstruction-depth fall?

reconstruction depth conditional on prior flight failure hazard

instrumented reconstructed versus thinly documented EDL


Count the attempts where a HIGH heritage score coincided with loss BECAUSE a proven element was operated beyond its qualified regime (heritage complacency), and show whether the envelope-docking rule reclassifies those rows EX ANTE or only retrospectively after the investigation names the cause. If only retrospectively, the coefficient absorbs heritage-induced failures as noise.

high heritage loss operated beyond qualified regime count

heritage complacency over-reliance EDL envelope


Partition reuse rows by demonstrable access to the originating reconstruction: reuses INSIDE the diffusion network (same agency, post-publication-date, English-language NTRS access) vs. reuses with a structural access barrier (foreign program, commercially firewalled, or attempt predating the reconstruction's publication). Does the protective heritage effect attenuate or vanish where the codified knowledge could not actually reach the reusing program? If identical across the access partition, the mechanism cannot be codified propositional knowledge.

access-cost partition reuse diffusion network EDL heritage

foreign program firewalled pre-publication reconstruction reach


For a flight-proven descent stage running materially new flight software against a new terrain map and new sensor-processing chain, does the element-wise rule assign HIGH or LOW heritage, and can the candidate produce actual NTRS/TechPort-scored values for 3-4 lunar rows to show the index does not tag autonomy-driven novelty as heritage?

heritage descent stage new autonomy software score

lunar EDL heritage index autonomy novelty NTRS TechPort


Software-resident EDL novelty spans information-analysis, decision-selection, and action-implementation but collapses into the single 'terminal guidance and hazard avoidance' bin. Has the candidate tested whether disaggregating that bin into distinct software functions changes the sign, magnitude, or significance of beta_1?

disaggregate terminal guidance hazard avoidance software functions

information analysis decision selection action EDL novelty


Does the propositional-novelty coding score reused-but-requalified autonomy software as propositionally grounded (because the algorithm flew) or ungrounded (because it is verified against an unflown environment), and can the candidate show with inter-coder reliability data restricted to the autonomy/software elements that the rule resolves this consistently?

propositional novelty coding requalified autonomy software

inter-coder reliability autonomy element EDL heritage


Within the single 'terminal guidance and hazard avoidance' element, can the candidate exhibit from the exact named documents (Vikram loss report, MSL/Mars 2020 reconstruction reports, SLIM result, fatal-software-failures taxonomy) at least one EDL loss coded HIGH heritage at the hardware level whose proximate cause sits at a DIFFERENT Parasuraman processing stage (e.g., reused engines/aeroshell but a novel decision-selection autonomy mode), and show the index would score that attempt LOW rather than HIGH? If no document locates the failure to a processing stage, the index cannot tell flight-proven hardware from flight-proven autonomy and beta_1 conflates two heritage constructs.

EDL loss high hardware heritage failure different processing stage

Vikram MSL Mars 2020 reconstruction stage-resolved


Using the NTRS reconstruction reports and the Vikram and Beresheet investigation records, can the candidate count how many losses in the frame are intervention-failures (failed/impossible supervisory backstop on a light-time delay) rather than architecture-failures, and show the two classes are not differently distributed across the heritage index? If high-heritage attempts fail mainly through architecture and low-heritage attempts fail mainly through un-arrested off-nominal autonomy no human could catch in time, beta_1 measures the absence of a working supervisory loop, not the protective value of the architecture.

intervention-failure versus architecture-failure EDL light-time delay

out-of-the-loop supervisory backstop landing autonomy


Specify the operational rule that fixes the 'proven envelope' boundary BEFORE the outcome is known, and report from TechPort TRL history and NTRS qualification documentation the count of attempts where the proven envelope could be bounded from pre-flight qualification records alone versus those where the envelope was effectively defined by the failure investigation itself. If for any non-trivial fraction the only evidence an element was 'outside its envelope' is that it failed, the LOW-heritage scores are partly outcome-determined, blind co-coding cannot catch it (both coders read the same post-hoc envelope), and the protective coefficient partly relabels the failures it predicts.

proven envelope pre-flight qualification versus failure-defined EDL

outcome leakage envelope coding qualification TRL


In a near-collinear few-dozen-row frame where heritage and program strength may be inseparably identified (the dissertation's own Section 5.5.4 names this as a falsifying condition), a single GAO-derived program-strength regression term cannot manufacture the off-support high-heritage/weak-program or low-heritage/strong-program comparisons that design provides. Name the one design feature in the historical record that breaks the heritage/program-strength/outcome triangle, report the count of matched within-lineage (e.g. Mars Polar Lander -> Phoenix -> InSight) discordant pairs, and if that count is below the threshold to identify beta_1 independently of the program-strength term, on what basis is the reported coefficient causal rather than a partial correlation program strength soaks up?

within-lineage discordant pair Mars Polar Lander Phoenix InSight

design feature breaks heritage program-strength triangle


The heritage index is weighted by depth of NTRS reconstruction documentation, and Section 3.6 / the low-documentation member concede documentation is asymmetric (US/European attempts far better reconstructed). This makes the index a drifting instrument: reconstruction depth is itself a function of program richness (MEDLI/MEDLI2 instrumentation) and era, both of which independently predict outcome. Specify the second, independent operationalization of heritage that should move WITH the documentation-weighted index if the construct is real but DIVERGE from it if the index is measuring instrumentation-and-era richness, and state the observed correlation between heritage score and documentation-density-per-row that would FALSIFY the claim that beta_1 reflects architectural lineage rather than catalogue drift.

second operationalization heritage documentation density discriminant

instrumentation era richness drift heritage index


The unit is the attempt that commits to an EDL sequence, and Fogel's own warning (cited as the partial-counterfactual qualifier) is that heritage availability changes which missions are attempted at all. Novel-architecture attempts cancelled, descoped, or never flown because the heritage path was unavailable are absent from the rows, so surviving novel attempts may be a self-selected (possibly more desperate) subpopulation, biasing beta_1 in an unknown direction rather than the conservative direction the candidate asserts. Identify the auxiliary population (the GAO/TechPort record of EDL technology programs funded but never reaching a landing attempt) that would let you observe the censored novel cases, and state the comparison on that record (selection-into-attempt rate, novel vs heritage architectures) that would reveal whether the selection bias is conservative or adverse.

selection-into-attempt rate novel versus heritage funded never flown


The failure outcome is coded from post-flight investigation reports whose forensic depth grows over the decades and is systematically deeper for the heritage-rich US/European missions scored high. That is an instrumentation threat: the outcome instrument drifts in lockstep with the regressor. Produce a constant-instrument stratum (e.g., MEDLI/MEDLI2-instrumented vs sparsely reconstructed rows) showing the heritage coefficient survives; if depth cannot be held fixed independently of heritage, name the residual divergence that would prove the instrument, not the architecture, is doing the work.

outcome instrument drift forensic depth heritage EDL

constant-instrument stratum MEDLI reconstructed heritage


The design names a program-strength control but no comparison series, leaving the secular-history threat unaddressed: maturing tracking baselines, a government-to-commercial operator shift, and changing target norms each co-produce a heritage-outcome association that is pure history. Identify the within-frame control series you can actually build, an architecturally independent lineage reaching the same outcome class by a separate path (Tianwen-1 is your own example), or an era-stratified comparison, and report whether beta_1 survives differencing out the secular trend. If none can be built, state which secular rival you leave alive and the observable that would make it the true cause.

secular history comparison series EDL heritage Tianwen-1

era-stratified differencing maturing tracking baseline


The external claim is bounded to Moon, Mars, Titan, yet Titan is a single Huygens row with zero within-target replication and beta_1 is estimated almost entirely on Mars and the Moon, two regimes the candidate describes as physically distinct (aerothermal entry vs powered-descent terminal guidance). State the UTOS warrant that licenses transporting one beta_1 across an airless powered-descent body and a thick-atmosphere aerothermal body, and name the element-level observable from the TechPort decomposition whose divergence between the Mars subset and the lunar subset would falsify a single pooled coefficient as masking two regime-specific effects.

UTOS warrant single pooled coefficient Mars Moon Titan

regime-specific EDL effect aerothermal powered descent


Refit the primary Firth specification leave-one-out across every row and report the full path of beta_1 and its permutation interval as each influential row (Beresheet, Vikram, the lone Huygens Titan point, any quasi-separating high-heritage success) is dropped. If sign or exclusion-of-zero flips on any single deletion, on what basis is the headline more than the accident of which catastrophes are in frame?

leave-one-out beta1 path influence Beresheet Vikram Huygens

destructive jackknife Firth logistic EDL sign stability


Simulate a population matched to your realized n, failure rate, and separation structure under the TRUE null (heritage randomized, no effect): what fraction of synthetic Firth draws produce your headline beta_1 magnitude with a permutation interval excluding zero? If false positives of that size occur at a non-trivial rate from tail sparsity alone, how is your fitted coefficient distinguishable from one of those draws?

calibrated null simulation Firth false positive separation EDL

parametric bootstrap H0 permutation interval rare event


Produce the inter-coder log showing each heritage element scored strictly before its mission outcome was known, and report how many scores would change if the regime/envelope determination were frozen from pre-flight qualification documents alone. If the protective effect shrinks once envelope coding is severed from hindsight, is beta_1 measuring heritage or your own knowledge of who crashed?

inter-coder log strictly before outcome envelope hindsight

pre-flight-only re-score heritage outcome contamination


Grant a perfectly identified, stable, negative beta_1 on the mean per-attempt failure probability. A crewed-class landing loss is an absorbing barrier, not a recoverable increment. Exhibit the artifact that converts beta_1 into a decision rule for the ruin-bearing case (a survival/ruin-weighted loss over the portfolio of attempts, distinct from the logistic mean) and state whether your contribution as written supplies it.

ruin survival weighted loss crewed-class landing absorbing barrier

non-ergodic portfolio decision rule beta1 EDL


Heritage is shared lineage: a reused engine, guidance stack, or flight-software baseline is common-mode across every vehicle that inherits it, so a latent defect raises correlated tail exposure even as it lowers average per-attempt risk. From the four named sources (NTRS reconstruction reports, the global attempt record, TechPort lineage, GAO program history), can you measure the cross-attempt correlation heritage induces, and name the single finite falsifying observation: one correlated-heritage-mode loss taking down multiple vehicles sharing one lineage element at once.

common-mode correlated tail heritage shared lineage engine

correlated-heritage-mode loss multiple vehicles falsifying


Heritage reuse transfers fragility: a small bounded per-attempt risk reduction is traded for concentrated exposure on a single common lineage whose tail failure is borne by whoever flies last (a crew, a flagship). Who bears the absorbing-barrier downside your coefficient would license, and are they the parties whose portfolio choices it is meant to guide? Does your dataset distinguish heritage decisions made by actors exposed to the tail loss from those made by actors insulated from it, and can a beta_1 pooled over both set a crewed-class bar at all?

skin in the game tail-exposed actor heritage decision crewed bar

transfer of fragility heritage reuse common lineage


NEEDS EXTERNAL CITATION. The grounded answer to the unfalsifiable-by-construction charge (heritage scored against regime-of-proof; out-of-envelope element scored LOW; pre-registered outcome-blind sequential coding) currently rests only on the dissertation itself (file pointer) plus the Christensen dossier (internal). Phase 1 must attach a resolvable external methodological citation for blinded pre-registered coding as an outcome-contamination control (e.g. Cochrane RoB-2, doi:10.1136/bmj.l4898, already surfaced in the taleb turn) before this defense can enter grounded_claims.

blind pre-registered envelope coding protocol external citation

design-stage unfalsifiable index heritage external source


NEEDS EXTERNAL CITATION. The heritage / program-strength collinearity-as-falsification-condition defense and the Firth/penalized-logistic rationale currently cite only the dissertation (file pointer) and the dossier. Phase 1 must attach the external Shen & Gao (penalized logistic resolves separation and multicollinearity) citation and a VIF/collinearity-diagnostic reference with a resolvable DOI before this enters grounded_claims.

heritage program-strength collinearity falsification external citation

penalized logistic separation multicollinearity Shen Gao


NEEDS EXTERNAL CITATION. The reverse-causation-in-element-selection / attenuation-toward-zero defense and the Mars 2020 element-level coding example currently cite only the dissertation (file pointer). Phase 1 must attach the external Way et al. EDL-overview and MEDLI2 reconstruction citations (resolvable DOIs) that the dissertation already references [ref-71][ref-74] so the example carries an external warrant.

reverse causation element selection attenuation external citation

Mars 2020 sky-crane reuse MEDLI2 terrain relative navigation


NEEDS EXTERNAL CITATION. The ex-ante (not retrospective) operability of the envelope-docking rule (low score for an element flown well outside its proven envelope, coded outcome-blind) currently rests only on the dissertation (file pointer). Phase 1 must attach a resolvable external citation for the forward-architecture / high-mass studies that quantify where the flown envelope ends (the dissertation cites these as [ref-43][ref-107][ref-5]; e.g. high-mass Mars EDL assessment doi:10.2514/6.2009-6684) before this enters grounded_claims.

ex-ante envelope-docking rule outcome-blind external citation

heritage complacency operating beyond regime external source


No panel seat tested the construct validity of the binary landing success/failure OUTCOME itself as a measurement object (the panel pressed the heritage regressor, the program-strength control, identification, and tail/portfolio decision use, but not whether a single binary loss-of-vehicle indicator, with its pre-registered partial-success boundary rule, is a stable and inter-coder-reliable dependent variable across eras and agencies). Specify the partial-success outcome-coding rule, exhibit the boundary-case register, and report (or commit to) an inter-coder reliability statistic on the OUTCOME coding comparable to the one planned for the heritage coding, so the dependent variable is not assumed away while every independent variable is scrutinized.

binary landing success failure outcome construct validity

partial-success outcome coding rule EDL boundary register

inter-coder reliability outcome coding planetary landing

loss-of-vehicle indicator stability across eras agencies