q: Execute the (a)/(b) decomposition of per-event cost: separate the irreducible residual-risk externality that survives at the optimally-tightened closure from the policy distortion (deadweight loss of static segregation) that vanishes under dynamic management, and report component (a) alone as the priceable externality.

facet: economics

raised_by: rao

priority: high

query_terms: marginal external cost efficient path reentry

query_terms: deadweight loss static airspace segregation

query_terms: externality price versus optimal fee residual risk

query_terms: orbital-use fee numerator optimal closure

status: open


q: Show whether the avoided-cost parameter survives general equilibrium once reentry cadence and airline routing respond endogenously to the new closure or fee regime, or whether a behavioral response offsets it; ReentryFlow currently carries no operator launch-and-return response function.

facet: mechanism

query_terms: coupled physico-economic model reentry airspace

query_terms: endogenous reentry cadence response to fee

query_terms: OPUS integrated assessment satellites debris

query_terms: behavioral response airspace closure pricing


q: Close the simulator-circularity empirically: recover avoided cost from the observed EU SST prediction-uncertainty-to-cost gradient (continuous-treatment intensity holding traffic and geometry fixed) and demonstrate it matches the ReentryFlow simulated counterfactual within stated error, and target the optimal-closure benchmark rather than mere closure tightness.

facet: identification

query_terms: Callaway Sant'Anna continuous treatment intensity

query_terms: prediction uncertainty dose response airspace cost

query_terms: counterfactual validation simulator data gradient

query_terms: exposure mapping validation reentry footprint

status: partial


q: Measure the empirical elasticity of chosen reentry corridor (dense-sector footprint overlap) with respect to an airspace-cost proxy, controlling object class and controllability, or demonstrate the EU SST sample lacks the variation to reject a near-zero operator avoidance margin.

facet: rival

query_terms: reentry corridor choice elasticity airspace cost

query_terms: controlled deorbit broad-ocean siting response

query_terms: operator avoidance margin reentry geometry

query_terms: shadow price reentry siting substitution


q: Run the corner-solution test: couple closure cost back into the operator siting decision and produce the fixed-geometry-versus-responsive-geometry avoided-cost comparison, giving a survives-or-decays-to-zero verdict for the residual-risk externality at policy-salient cadence.

query_terms: corner solution externality self-extinguishing routing

query_terms: coupled model siting response shadow price

query_terms: IAC-26 footprint demise trajectory lineage

query_terms: geometry-responsive avoided cost reentry


q: Separate a standing congestible-commons externality (a per-event NAS price correctly internalizes it) from a transitional externality that exists only because the down-mass corridor is not yet a coordinated, sited institution; identify events where the operator had a low-airspace-cost alternative and declined it versus events where none existed.

query_terms: standing versus transitional externality corridor coordination

query_terms: willingness to impose cost revealed reentry

query_terms: corrective price standing congestible commons

query_terms: one-time corridor designation coordination gap


q: Demonstrate that the EU SST catalog plus FAA records supply enough events with independent, exogenous variation in closure tightness, holding traffic constant, to identify the avoided-cost elasticity on its own, so the parameter survives even if the ReentryFlow counterfactual is deleted; supply the event count and the distribution of exogenous tightness variation.

query_terms: design-based variation closure tightness reentry

query_terms: exogenous treatment intensity event count EU SST

query_terms: calibrated model output versus research design

query_terms: credibility revolution simulation differenced against itself


q: Test whether realized AHA footprint size is statistically independent of baseline sector traffic density and concurrent weather conditional on predicted dispersion, or whether the FAA conservative AHA sizing rule reintroduces selection; footprint is a post-treatment outcome-affected variable (bad control).

query_terms: AHA footprint sizing endogeneity traffic density

query_terms: bad control post-treatment footprint conditioning

query_terms: conditional independence selection on observables airspace

query_terms: FAA hazard area conservative sizing rule


q: Show whether the EU SST prediction-uncertainty bound used as continuous treatment intensity is conditionally exogenous to the exposed-traffic profile given object characteristics (ballistic coefficient, size, tracking quality), or supply a valid instrument for closure tightness orthogonal to object type; otherwise the intensity coefficient is a biased object-characteristic composite (bad control / generated regressor).

query_terms: generated regressor exclusion restriction continuous treatment

query_terms: instrument closure tightness orthogonal object type

query_terms: prediction uncertainty bound object characteristics confound

query_terms: catalog over-representation well-tracked objects bias


q: Identify the SWIM/NAS panel variable that measures cross-cell traffic displacement and show empirically whether closure-driven reroutes flow into the designated Callaway-Sant'Anna control cells (an SUTVA/interference violation staggered-DiD does not fix), settling whether controls are clean or absorbing spillover.

query_terms: SUTVA interference between units staggered DiD

query_terms: spillover control cell reroute displacement airspace

query_terms: Callaway Sant'Anna clean control contamination

query_terms: cross-sector traffic displacement variable SWIM


q: Recover from the EU SST footprint catalog joined to the FAA sector record the distribution of treated-sector versus control-sector baseline traffic density and show whether treated and control cells are drawn from the same congestion stratum, since footprints concentrate over high-density coastal/descent corridors (spatial selection breaking parallel trends).

query_terms: spatial selection treated control congestion stratum

query_terms: parallel trends baseline density coastal descent corridor

query_terms: footprint catalog FAA sector density join

query_terms: selection on running variable airspace cost


q: Run the design-based continuous-intensity avoided-cost estimate against real events and report whether it lands inside the confidence interval of the ReentryFlow-simulated number; divergence reveals the simulated counterfactual is carrying the result.

facet: empirics

query_terms: design-based versus simulated avoided cost concordance

query_terms: ReentryFlow confidence interval falsification test

query_terms: continuous intensity estimator real events reentry

query_terms: calibrated counterfactual carrying the result


q: Specify a panel variable that measures the institution's own adjustment cost (the price the FAA pays to switch regimes) distinct from the user-borne disruption cost, and an authorization-record observable (e.g. rate of approving narrower closures conditional on a measured cost) that would let the design reject the hypothesis that the rule is held by liability allocation and a conservative safety mandate rather than by missing data.

facet: governance

raised_by: north

query_terms: institutional adjustment cost regime switch FAA

query_terms: transaction cost rule change liability allocation

query_terms: authorization record narrower closure approval rate


q: Produce a historical episode where a measured or modeled airspace-cost estimate demonstrably caused a closure-rule relaxation, and a contrasting case where a comparable estimate did not, so the load-bearing claim that measurement is institutionally load-bearing can be falsified rather than stipulated.

query_terms: measured cost caused airspace rule change case

query_terms: rulemaking docket closure relaxation cost evidence

query_terms: FAA Part 450 authorization rule change driver

query_terms: natural experiment institutional change measurement


q: Specify the enforcement-and-liability mechanism a dynamic-closure rule requires, name who holds residual-risk liability when a narrowed hazard area is breached, and supply a test that the measured avoided-cost is large enough to overcome that liability transfer rather than merely large in delay-minutes; distinguish 'better prediction pays' from 'better prediction pays but the institution still will not adopt it'.

query_terms: residual risk liability narrowed hazard area breach

query_terms: enforcement mechanism dynamic airspace closure rule

query_terms: liability transfer adoption barrier reentry

query_terms: cost benefit versus adoption finding institution


q: Recover the realized lag distribution between a documented airspace-cost signal and a consequent FAA closure-rule change, and the realized migration-rate series toward controlled reentry, segregated corridors, and broad-ocean recovery; show their ordering rather than assuming the rule adapts in time for the price to bind.

query_terms: lag distribution cost signal rule change FAA

query_terms: controlled reentry migration rate segregated corridor

query_terms: sequencing institution technology adaptation airspace

query_terms: broad-ocean recovery adoption time series


q: State whether the ReentryFlow counterfactual re-derives the closure rule against a moving baseline that incorporates operators' own trending dispersion-reduction and routing, or holds the static status-quo fixed; a frozen counterfactual risks pricing a stranded institutional case.

priority: normal

query_terms: moving baseline counterfactual trending dispersion reduction

query_terms: adaptive efficiency revisability closure rule

query_terms: frozen static envelope counterfactual reentry

query_terms: stranded institution declining contested share


q: Construct an equal-withheld-volume, equal-duration matched comparison of closure-driven TMIs against weather- or volume-driven TMIs to separate the raw closure shock from the residual cost remaining after existing NAS coordination mechanisms have already absorbed it; a concurrent-TMI covariate is weaker than this benchmark.

raised_by: ostrom

query_terms: matched TMI weather volume equal withheld volume

query_terms: coordination cost versus externality airspace absorption

query_terms: congestion externality internalized hub carrier

query_terms: traffic management initiative benchmark reentry closure


q: Test whether the disaggregated group-time avoided-cost distribution (by aircraft class, sector, ANSP regime) predicts where existing operator coordination already neutralizes the closure versus where it does not; the heterogeneous burden distribution is grounded but the predictive link to coordination response is not.

query_terms: burden distribution coordination neutralization prediction

query_terms: group-time ATT aircraft class sector heterogeneity

query_terms: polycentric allocation operator coordination reentry

query_terms: matched coordination-response evidence airspace


q: Add a net-system-cost test to ReentryFlow validation: test whether tighter historical closures produced lower NET network cost (within-window plus propagated cost net of adjacent-sector re-coordination) rather than merely a smaller hazard polygon, so the avoided cost is genuinely removed rather than reallocated across the polycentric NAS.

facet: measurement

query_terms: net network cost propagated delay reallocation

query_terms: Rebollo Balakrishnan delay propagation NAS

query_terms: adjacent sector displacement re-coordination polygon


q: Construct a measurable variable distinguishing who appropriates the airspace volume (the reentry operator triggering the AHA) from who provisions the cost (exposed aviation users) and test whether realized per-event cost falls more on operators or sectors excluded from the FAA space-integration coordination process; burden tracking exclusion would reveal a congruence (Ostrom principle 2) and collective-choice (principle 3) failure.

query_terms: appropriator provisioner congruence airspace exclusion

query_terms: collective choice representation coordination arena FAA

query_terms: burden tracks exclusion from rule-making table

query_terms: externalized cost aviation industry reentry operator


q: Observe any mechanism by which an aviation user could contest, audit, or appeal the SSA-derived footprint that displaced them, and measure the containment / false-negative rate (how often the realized reentry fell inside the tightened dynamic footprint); without a monitor-accountability mechanism and miss rate the dynamic regime books monitoring-failure cost as savings (Ostrom principle 4).

query_terms: contestability appeal SSA footprint aviation user

query_terms: containment false-negative rate dynamic closure

query_terms: monitor accountability tightened footprint miss rate

query_terms: Ostrom principle 4 monitoring reentry prediction


q: Estimate per-event cost under a polycentric variant in which adjacent sectors and their air-navigation coordinators negotiate reroute allocation, and compare it head-to-head against the monocentric dynamic-closure cost; comparing only static-central versus dynamic-central tests whether a monopoly rule-maker computes better, not whether the monopoly rule-maker is the right institution.

query_terms: polycentric coordination center reroute allocation cost

query_terms: monocentric versus polycentric institutional comparison

query_terms: launch coordination center SpaceTracks stakeholder balance

query_terms: comparative institutional analysis airspace panacea


q: Split the EU SST x SWIM panel by the temporal and spatial density of the affected sector at the moment of each closure and report whether per-event cost concentrates in high-density mainline windows versus already-thin windows; pre-register the density-by-treatment interaction as a foregrounded estimand rather than a conditioning covariate (jobs-to-be-done segmentation by circumstance, not product category).

query_terms: density stratified per-event cost mainline thin window

query_terms: jobs to be done segmentation circumstance not category

query_terms: pre-registered density-by-treatment interaction estimand

query_terms: off-peak oceanic low-density sector routing


q: Identify and join the dataset that prices the down-mass operator's own foregone value from being denied a tighter or faster corridor (P1 return-leg / down-mass business-case economics joined to delivery-timeliness), since all four current cost measures live entirely on the incumbent-aviation side and are structurally blind to the demand the disruption creates.

query_terms: down-mass operator foregone value corridor access

query_terms: return-leg economics business case airspace variable

query_terms: two-sided cost ledger operator transit reentry

query_terms: delivery timeliness job down-mass supply chain


q: Measure the time trend in the share of U.S.-airspace-intersecting reentries that are uncontrolled-and-high-dispersion versus controlled-and-targeted, and the trend in footprints overlapping the densest en-route sectors versus oceanic/spaceport corridors; if that share is flat or declining, constant-per-event-times-cadence over-prices a self-de-congesting resource.

query_terms: controlled versus uncontrolled reentry share time trend

query_terms: dense sector overlap fraction maturation reentry

query_terms: value network trajectory internalization orbital commons

query_terms: self-de-congesting resource cadence extrapolation


q: Add a variable that compares the avoided cost of dynamic-closure-in-place against the avoided cost of corridor-segregation-away (broad-ocean areas, dedicated segregated lanes, the launch-coordination-center path), so the design can show dynamic closure is the adaptation the value network will fund rather than a sustaining patch the disruptor routes around.

query_terms: dynamic closure in place versus corridor segregation away

query_terms: broad-ocean corridor avoided cost comparator

query_terms: sustaining improvement disruptor routes around

query_terms: dedicated segregated reentry lane adaptation path


q: Identify any operator-internalization observable (capital investment in dedicated recovery infrastructure, spaceport-corridor reentry agreements, controlled-reentry adoption-rate trend) that would show the externality is being designed-out by the operator's own resource allocation, so the design can distinguish a persistent priced externality from a transitional friction the industry's maturation dissolves before institutional adoption.

query_terms: operator internalization recovery infrastructure investment

query_terms: spaceport corridor reentry agreement adoption rate

query_terms: controlled reentry adoption trend resource allocation

query_terms: transitional friction versus persistent externality maturation


q: Decompose the avoided-cost parameter into the risk-reducible closure volume and the policy/conservatism/jurisdictional slack that no prediction improvement can shrink; without that decomposition 'better prediction pays' is unfalsifiable because the irreducible denial component is credited to prediction.

raised_by: bowen

query_terms: risk-reducible versus policy conservatism closure volume

query_terms: space control space denial irreducible footprint

query_terms: probability of casualty constraint versus authority choice

query_terms: national authority preemptive closure decision variable


q: Show where in the EU-SST/SWIM/ReentryFlow record the measured cost falls on the rule-changing decision-holder (FAA/AST authorizer and the down-mass operator) as distinct from aviation users who bear delay but do not set policy; if cost lands on parties who cannot change the rule, the load-bearing measurement has no transmission mechanism to the institution it must move.

query_terms: cost incidence rule-setting actor versus user

query_terms: transmission mechanism measurement institutional change

query_terms: authorizer borne cost versus aviation user delay

query_terms: decider bearer mismatch airspace closure


q: Add a two-sided cost term for what the closure imposes back on the reentering operator (missed delivery window, delayed or diverted recovery, foreclosed corridor); a one-sided externality estimate cannot distinguish a true system efficiency gain from a transfer between two users of the same contested commons.

query_terms: two-sided ledger operator transit cost reentry

query_terms: missed delivery window diverted recovery foreclosed corridor

query_terms: efficiency gain versus transfer contested commons

query_terms: treat reentry vehicle as aircraft open corridor


q: Decompose historical closure-size variance into a prediction-uncertainty block and an event-invariant policy block (object provenance, debris-survivability class, controlled-vs-uncontrolled status, NOTAM authority, post-incident regime shifts) via a closure-size regression with policy fixed effects interacted against the prediction bound; if the policy block dominates, the avoided-cost lever does not move the withheld volume at the margin.

query_terms: closure size variance decomposition prediction policy block

query_terms: policy fixed effects survivability controlled status NOTAM

query_terms: residual risk floor prediction cannot shrink

query_terms: post-incident regime shift closure sizing


q: Formulate the optimal closure-and-reroute allocation as an explicit integer program (decision variables hold/reroute and which sub-volume to withhold; objective total disruption cost; constraints the realized hazard envelope) and report the optimality gap between the dynamic heuristic and a solved or dual-bounded optimum, so the regulator sees how much achievable saving any deployable policy leaves on the table.

raised_by: dantzig

query_terms: integer program closure reroute optimality gap

query_terms: duality bound optimality certificate airspace allocation

query_terms: heuristic policy lower bound unknown slackness


q: Formulate the dynamic-closure counterfactual as a stochastic program with recourse (first-stage closure under a forecast distribution, recourse resize once dispersion is revealed) rather than a deterministic point resize keyed to ex-post realized dispersion, and show on EU SST uncertainty bounds that the reported avoided cost is robust to the forecast-error distribution rather than inflated by hindsight.

query_terms: stochastic program recourse forecast distribution closure

query_terms: linear programming under uncertainty two-stage reentry

query_terms: hindsight ex-post realized dispersion avoided cost

query_terms: forecast-error distribution robustness perturbation


q: Estimate the shadow price (marginal disruption cost) of the binding airspace-capacity constraint in the adjacent sectors absorbing displaced traffic and determine whether that shadow price scales sub-linearly, linearly, or super-linearly with reentry cadence, since constant per-event cost times projected cadence assumes a linearity that receiving-sector congestion would violate.

query_terms: shadow price binding capacity constraint adjacent sector

query_terms: marginal disruption cost cadence scaling nonlinear

query_terms: dual variable receiving sector congestion airspace

query_terms: constant per-event times cadence linearity violation


q: Produce the minimum-area hazard polygon that satisfies the FAA-held residual-risk tolerance (probability-of-casualty / collision-with-aircraft bound) as the solution to an explicit program and report the gap between ReentryFlow's resized closure and that certified-optimal closure, so the avoided cost is the distance to the frontier rather than to a hand-drawn polygon.

query_terms: minimum-area hazard polygon casualty probability constraint

query_terms: certified optimal closure frontier resized gap

query_terms: risk-constrained geometric optimization hazard area

query_terms: probability of casualty bound FAA tolerance


q: Verify the ReentryFlow reroute solution against receiving-sector MAP (monitor alert parameter) capacity ceilings before reporting exposed-flight cost, and exhibit at least one SWIM event where the naive additive cost was revised upward because the reroute was infeasible (saturated a neighbor) versus one where it was slack; an unchecked reroute can credit an avoided cost that violates a capacity constraint and cannot be flown.

query_terms: monitor alert parameter MAP capacity feasibility reroute

query_terms: infeasible reroute saturated receiving sector cost

query_terms: additive cost revised upward capacity ceiling


q: Formulate the high-cadence closure-and-reroute problem as a decomposable Dantzig-Wolfe system (master problem coordinating shared-sector capacity across per-event subproblems via pricing) and show on a simulated multi-event week whether the coupled-optimal avoided cost is larger or smaller than the sum of independent per-event avoided costs; without the linking term, per-event-difference-times-cadence is an unvalidated separable extrapolation.

query_terms: Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition shared sector capacity

query_terms: linking term coupled versus sum of independents

query_terms: per-event difference times cadence separability

query_terms: simulated multi-event week congestion contention


q: Produce an executed parts-versus-whole comparison on the SWIM/NAS record: check the additive exposed-flight cost against a network-level reconstruction of total system delay across all sectors in the active window (treated and untreated, including knock-on flights never marked exposed) for the same reentry events; divergence means the disruption parameter measures the parts, not the emergent system reconfiguration cost.

raised_by: ackoff

query_terms: parts versus whole network delay reconstruction NAS

query_terms: emergent reconfiguration cost knock-on flights

query_terms: additive exposed-flight sum system delta divergence

query_terms: total system delay active window treated untreated


q: Show on realized data whether the ReentryFlow counterfactual conserves total displaced traffic across the full NAS (adjacent-sector and downstream load before versus after the dynamic closure) rather than crediting a narrowed footprint as avoided cost while routing displaced flights off-frame; absent the conservation check, the avoided cost is a suboptimization artifact.

query_terms: displaced traffic conservation adjacent sector downstream

query_terms: suboptimization local optimum narrowed footprint

query_terms: before-after load dynamic closure same event

query_terms: congestion shifted adjacent sector NAS whole


q: Produce a second avoided-cost estimate against a dissolved counterfactual in which the generating structure is changed (reentry corridors pre-integrated into the NAS route network so no per-event hazard-area activation occurs) and report whether that dissolution avoided cost is same-order, larger, or an order of magnitude larger than the dynamic-closure number; if the data can only price the tuned regime, the contribution is bounded to solving rather than dissolving.

query_terms: dissolved counterfactual route-integrated corridor avoided cost

query_terms: solve versus dissolve generating structure mess

query_terms: air-space integration architecture redesign avoided cost

query_terms: pre-integrated reentry corridor no hazard activation


q: Record an actual behavioral response of the purposeful parties (airlines that reroute, controllers that adjudicate, reentry operators that schedule, the residual-risk liability holder) to a dynamic-handling regime, e.g. European launch-coordination-center events under dynamic handling, so the avoided cost is validated against parties acting on their own purposes rather than complying with an analyst-chosen footprint.

query_terms: observed behavioral response dynamic handling regime

query_terms: launch coordination center events airline controller response

query_terms: interactive planning participation affected parties

query_terms: analyst-imposed footprint versus observed comparison group


q: Estimate the cross-system feedback elasticity of down-mass launch/return cadence with respect to the airspace cost or fee the per-event number implies, so the design can show that minimizing the aviation cost (the part) does not suboptimize the down-mass enterprise (the whole); the elasticity of reentry demand is explicitly outside the panel.

query_terms: down-mass cadence elasticity airspace fee feedback

query_terms: suboptimization part-optimum containing system

query_terms: elasticity of reentry demand welfare term

query_terms: cross-system feedback aviation cost down-mass enterprise


q: MODERATOR MISSING ANGLE: no panelist priced or interrogated the dual-use security and sovereignty dimension Bowen named structurally but the Expert never grounded with national-security or sovereignty evidence: military/intelligence equities in reentry corridors, classified or sovereign-controlled airspace, and the national-security residual-risk holder. The whole panel treated the binding constraint as economic or institutional; the security political economy of who bears residual risk in dual-use airspace is the angle Phase 1 must open, since it determines whether a priced civil externality is even the operative lever.

raised_by: moderator

query_terms: dual-use airspace sovereignty reentry corridor security

query_terms: military intelligence equities hazard area closure

query_terms: national security residual risk holder airspace

query_terms: sovereign controlled airspace reentry political economy